Global Risks 2026: The Climate Crisis as a Long-Term Threat

Amid intensifying volatility across virtually every dimension of global affairs, the World Economic Forum (WEF) has released its Global Risks Report 2026 — the 21st edition — drawing on the perspectives of over 1,300 experts worldwide to map the major challenges that could define the next decade. The report covers short- to long-term risks across economics, environment, geopolitics, society, and technology, serving as a warning to the world to prepare for an "age of competition" defined by deep uncertainty.

The 2026 Outlook: A World at a Turning Point

One of the most striking signals in this year's report is that climate-related risks are being deprioritized in the short term. Extreme weather events, previously ranked 2nd, have slipped to 3rd place in 2026 and are projected to fall further to 4th by 2028 — a shift that reflects changing patterns in global concern.

But this reshuffling doesn't mean the world is getting safer. Experts warn it's actually a red flag: environmental issues are being overshadowed by more immediate crises in security, politics, and economics. The urgent scramble to address geopolitical conflict and social polarization risks quietly pushing climate threats — which are still very much building — into the background.

The Long View: Climate Still Dominates

Over the longer horizon — looking ahead 10 years to around 2036 — the climate crisis reclaims the top spot, ranking 1st among global risks for the fifth consecutive year. The risks dominating the next decade remain overwhelmingly environmental: extreme weather events, biodiversity loss, ecosystem collapse, and systemic changes to the Earth's natural systems.

The report reinforces that the climate crisis is a systemic threat of escalating severity, generating cascading effects across economics, society, and human security. The year 2024 was recorded as the first in which the global average temperature exceeded 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, while economic losses from natural disasters surged to around $250 billion. These figures make one thing clear: global warming is no longer a future concern — it is a crisis happening here and now, and one that is steadily eroding the quality of life and opportunities available to the next generation.

Beyond direct environmental risks, the report highlights a deeply troubling interconnection between the environmental crisis and technological and social risks. In a world of rapid and overwhelming information flow, misinformation and deliberate disinformation rank 2nd among short-term risks — with direct consequences for environmental policymaking and climate response.

As societies face deepening ideological polarization and declining trust in institutions, national and global cooperation on structural problems becomes increasingly difficult to sustain. Technology, meanwhile, plays a dual role — both tool and threat — with artificial intelligence as a prime example. While AI enhances the accuracy of weather forecasting and disaster management, it is equally a double-edged sword given its enormous energy appetite.

The report projects that by 2035, data centers could account for as much as 20% of global electricity consumption, with AI expansion serving as a key driver of surging energy demand — placing mounting pressure on power grids and countries' greenhouse gas reduction targets.

Aging infrastructure presents yet another major challenge for younger generations. Increasingly frequent and intense natural disasters are stress-testing electricity, water, and transportation systems that were designed and built decades ago. In low- and middle-income countries, the report warns that climate-vulnerable infrastructure failures could cause economic damage of up to $300 billion per year.

Should investment in climate-resilient and environmentally friendly infrastructure continue to lag, social inequality will widen further — because when disasters strike, it is invariably the most vulnerable who are first to lose access to basic services, and who ultimately bear the heaviest burden of the systemic risks the world now faces.

The WEF report makes clear that integrating climate risk management into strategic planning and investment is an urgent mission that can no longer be deferred. Every country must develop monitoring and early warning systems alongside adaptation measures to maintain long-term economic and social stability — because the decisions made today will directly determine whether the world of 2036 faces severe fragility, or is able to adapt and move forward sustainably.

Reference: https://reports.weforum.org/.../WEF_Global_Risks_Report...

Source: Department of Climate Change and Environment